Simon Giles: Manchester City back on track but top-five race could go down to the wire

Five Premier League clubs are separated by just four points in the fight for three viable top-five spots and the reward of Champions League qualification. 

We assess how the contenders are shaping up and what role the schedule may play in the run-in.

Manchester City – 1-10 to finish in top five

Matheus Nunes's 94th-minute winner against Aston Villa on Tuesday was a huge swing for the Citizens.

The 2-1 victory took them to 61 points so six more in their next two games at home to Wolves and away to Southampton should get them over the line in the top-five race.

They also have a healthy goal-difference advantage and the three sides closest to them still have games against each other.

City remain a diminished version of themselves. However, since the March international break there have been signs that Pep Guardiola has made them less vulnerable, other than a wild opening quarter against Crystal Palace.

They have allowed an average of just 1.8 shots on target in their last five matches, having given up 4.2 per game in their previous league fixtures in 2025.

Flying wingers Jeremy Doku and Savio both started City's four games prior to the internationals, of which they won only one, but since then they have done so only against Leicester.

It may be less exciting but getting more central midfielders on the pitch, as well as increased energy levels thanks to academy products Nico O'Reilly and James McAtee, mean City are closing in on Champions League football.

Newcastle – 2-5

Villa's squad depth was one reason for their superb 4-1 win over rivals Newcastle last Saturday.

Physicality and intensity are two of the Magpies' key strengths and those standards slipped at Villa Park, in what was their third game in six days, and the seventh straight match with an unchanged line-up.

Crucially, Newcastle's remaining games are all separated by a full week and they have a significant rest advantage over Chelsea for their potentially pivotal fixture on May 11.

Manager Eddie Howe is reported to be back at work having been hospitalised with pneumonia this month and the club will be glad to have him back in the dugout as soon as possible.

Assistant manager Jason Tindall successfully rolled over their gameplan in impressive home wins against Manchester United and Crystal Palace but Howe's absence was surely felt at Villa Park last weekend.

The Magpies have been excellent against the weaker sides as only Liverpool have picked up more points against the bottom eight.

Newcastle also boast the best defensive record against bottom-eight opponents so they should be confident of getting back on track against Ipswich this weekend and, if necessary, beating Everton on the final day.

Nottingham Forest – 2-5

Villa and Everton consigned Nottingham Forest to back-to-back defeats earlier this month and the 1-0 loss to the Toffees was Forest's first reverse against a bottom-half side this season.

The Tricky Trees got back to what they do best on Monday, scoring the first goal against Tottenham, playing on the break and managing the game well to win 2-1.

However, whereas earlier in the season Forest excelled at absorbing pressure and limiting opponents to few clear sights of their goal, Spurs had enough big chances to grab a point.

Forest have allowed chances worth at least 1.5 xG in eight of their last 14 games, having done so in only four of their opening 19 matches.

Nuno Espirito Santo's men have outrun their stats for much of the campaign. In terms of actual goals conceded, only Liverpool and Arsenal were more stingy in the first half of term but Forest rank joint-11th since then.

They have points on the board and the easiest run-in on paper although Sunday's FA Cup semi-final against City means they face four-day turnarounds for their next two games against Brentford and Palace.

The Eagles have picked up points and posted underlying numbers similar to the European contenders in the second half of the season and they have the joint-most clean sheets during that period.

Leicester may provide less resistance to Forest before a potentially decisive game against Chelsea on the final day.

Chelsea – Evs

The Blues' 2-1 comeback win at Fulham last weekend kept them in charge of their own destiny as they are still to play Newcastle and Forest.

Both of those games are on the road, however, and the trip to Newcastle is made harder by a midday kick-off, just three days after their Conference League semi-final second leg against Djurgarden.

Chelsea have the toughest run-in on paper although facing Liverpool next weekend may be less taxing if the Reds seal the title on Sunday.

And the Blues' game against Manchester United could come shortly before the Red Devils are contesting a Europa League final.

Chelsea were second in the table, with the third-best underlying numbers, over their first 16 games but they rank 12th for points over their last 17 matches and are scoring almost a goal per game fewer despite averaging more shots.

They had 34 attempts when drawing at home to Ipswich on April 13 but there is a suggestion that opponents have got used to Enzo Maresca's possession-heavy style and are better equipped to limit Chelsea's big chances.

Their worst six games for average chance quality have all come since mid-February and Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke's recent returns from injury are yet to reduce the pressure on Cole Palmer.

Everton will not allow them space in behind at Stamford Bridge on Saturday and neither will Forest in a final-day fixture at the City Ground that could be a ‘winner takes all’ showdown.

Aston Villa – 9-2

Tuesday's setback at the Etihad Stadium means Villa are seventh, having played a game more than most of their top-five rivals.

Three wins from their last four games would take them to 66 points but they may need more as they have by far the worst goal difference in the top seven.

Fulham and Bournemouth, despite recent wobbles, are not going to roll over as they still have European ambitions of their own.

Villa's final two opponents, Tottenham and Manchester United, could both reach the Europa League final, a distraction that would fall between their fixtures against the Villans.

Some of that potential advantage would be erased if Unai Emery's side beat Crystal Palace in Saturday's FA Cup semi-final as that may mean their clash with Spurs is brought forward to the midweek slot before the cup final.

The depth Villa added in January's transfer window has helped Emery rotate and maintain levels better in recent months.

Only Liverpool have collected more points since the window closed and only Newcastle have averaged more goals per game. 

They ranked eighth and 12th in those metrics prior to the end of January, however, and that, coupled with a ropey away record, means they have little margin for error from now on.

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